According to the CBI’s monthly industrial trends survey for May, UK’s manufacturing firms expect the pace of decline in output to slow markedly in the next quarter, suggesting they believe the toughest phase of the recession may be behind them.The results showed that 17% of the 575 firms surveyed said they expect the volume of output to increase over the next three months, against 34% who anticipate a fall. The resulting balance of -17% is a marked improvement on the previous month (a balance of – 32%), and takes the measure back to where it was before the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September (a balance of -16%).
Ian McCafferty, the CBI’s Chief Economic Adviser, said, “After scaling back production very sharply at the beginning of the year, manufacturers can see a glimmer at the end of the tunnel. They still expect manufacturing activity to fall, but at a much slower rate over the next few months. However, this was another tough month for firms, with orders at home and abroad still at very weak levels. Demand for UK-made goods remains weak with 10% of firms reporting above normal total order books in May, while 66% said they were below normal. The resulting balance of -56% is broadly unchanged from each of the previous three months."
Despite firms aggressively running down their stocks, levels remain high with a balance of 30% reporting stocks more than adequate to meeting demand, which was not far off March’s twenty eight year high (a balance of 31%).
Gareth
Note for PAs – this is useful data when your Boss asks for any evidence that things are starting to improve or when you need to demonstrate you have your finger on the pulse.
Gareth
Note for PAs – this is useful data when your Boss asks for any evidence that things are starting to improve or when you need to demonstrate you have your finger on the pulse.
6 comments:
Interesting, my Boss will be keen to hear this. Good news if it is a sustainable reduction in the rate of decline.
My probllem is, if manufacturing is dead in the UK and the Financial Services Sector is dead - what's left for UK plc?
Nice mix of topics by the way. A good read.
We are a manufacturing company and things are very tough. We have lost 35% of our business to China in the last 12 months and a lot of it was the traditionally more profitable stuff. The recession has done for another 20% and we are working really hard to break even. My boss is working all hours to find new work but there is little about. He's my hero (earlier article).
It is very hard to be a product producer in the UK these days. The factory is empty and the atmosphere bleak. We desparately need a break.
Anonymous, I'm so sorry to hear about your employer - I think there must unfortunately be a huge number of these 'heroes' out there at the moment - I'm sure you are a great support to him. I wish you, your employer and the other employees all the best for a more productive and prosperous future.
I'm in the same situation as the Anon. blogger, my company is hanhing on by its finger-tips, so I know how they feel. Just 12 months ago we were hiring people, winning awards and planning expensive team meetings but not now!
We make very specialist scientific equipment and sell at maximum 100 units each year. We have had people pull out of 15 orders so far in 2009. Everyone has taken a pay cut but morale is still high. I think many are just putting on a good show but worrying deep down.
I have been offered another job and feel very disloyal thinking about leaving at this time; I love everyone I work with and they have been so good to me but I have a young family and I need to earn money. What do people think, what's more important loyalty or reality? Tough one I'm affraid.
Fay, I feel for you. You obviously must put your family first and I'm sure your employer and colleagues would agree but don't jump into a new company until you are sure about them - they may be hiring but check they are financially secure - what's the old saying "the grass isn't always greener on the other side" or something similar.
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